基于多维观测信息的动态权重融合海上长波传播时延预测方法

A dynamic weight fusion method for ASF prediction based on multi-dimensional observational data

  • 摘要: 针对海上复杂环境下增强型罗兰(Enhanced Long-Range Navigation, eLoran)系统传播时延修正量易受环境扰动影响、传统预测方法精度有限且对气象信息依赖较强的问题,本文提出一种基于多维观测信息的动态权重融合海上长波传播时延预测方法. 该方法以接收机接收信号参量为基础,多维观测信息为输入,构建融合多种基模型的预测框架,研究不同观测信息之间的关联性及其对传播时延变化的表征能力. 通过引入动态权重分配机制,设计适应子模型预测误差变化的动态权重,并采用指数加权移动平均(exponentially weighted moving average, EWMA)平滑约束策略,已实现模型稳定性与鲁棒性的提高. 实测数据结果表明,机器学习与深度学习方法在演化传播时延非线性变化及时序特征方面优于传统线性模型,融合策略可进一步提升预测精度与稳定性. 所提方法在传播时延预测中均表现出较优性能,在误差控制和相关性指标方面优于对比方法. 研究表明,该方法能够有效提升近岸海上传播环境下长波传播时延预测精度,对 eLoran 系统高精度定位具有重要意义.

     

    Abstract: To address the issue that the additional secondary factor (ASF) in Enhanced Long-Range Navigation (eLoran) systems is highly susceptible to environmental disturbances in complex maritime environments, while conventional prediction methods exhibit limited accuracy and strong dependence on external meteorological information, this paper proposes a dynamic weight fusion method for ASF prediction based on multidimensional observational information. The proposed method utilizes receiver signal parameters as the foundation and incorporates multidimensional observational data as inputs to construct a predictive framework that integrates multiple base models. It systematically investigates the correlations among different observational features and their capabilities in characterizing ASF variations. A dynamic weighting mechanism is introduced to adaptively adjust the weights of sub-models according to their prediction errors. Furthermore, an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) smoothing constraint is employed to enhance model stability and robustness. Experimental results based on real-world data show that machine learning and deep learning approaches outperform traditional linear models in capturing the nonlinear evolution and temporal characteristics of ASF. The proposed fusion strategy further improves both prediction accuracy and stability. The method achieves superior performance in both time-difference prediction tasks and outperforms benchmark methods in terms of error control and correlation metrics. The results indicate that the proposed approach effectively enhances ASF prediction accuracy in complex marine environments, thereby providing significant support for high-precision positioning in eLoran systems.

     

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