基于CNN-BiLSTM模型融合BKA优化算法的地面沉降预测

Ground subsidence prediction based on a CNN-BiLSTM model integrated with the BKA optimization algorithm

  • 摘要: 卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)和双向长短期记忆网络(bidirectional long short-term memory, BiLSTM)是目前流行的用于地面沉降预测深度学习架构. 然而,深度学习模型超参数的选择既费时又复杂,且超参数选择不当可能会导致模型整体性能不佳. 针对这一问题,本文融合黑翅鸢优化算法(black-winged kite optimization algorithm, BKA)构建了BKA-CNN-BiLSTM组合模型,并以西宁市为例进行实验分析,并将实验结果与其他四种模型的实验结果进行对比. 结果表明:在与传统模型的对比中,BKA-CNN-BiLSTM模型的训练与预测效果更好,其决定系数(R2)较BiLSTM模型提高了17.43%~25.77%,较CNN-BiLSTM模型提高了12.04%~13.75%,平均绝对误差(mean absolute error, MAE)、均方误差(mean square error,MSE)、均方根误差(root mean square error, RMSE)指标均为最优. 在与遗传算法(genetic algorithm, GA)、粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization, PSO)算法优化的CNN-BiLSTM模型对比中,此模型依然表现出了更高的的可靠性与预测性能,其R2分别提高了6.20%~17.76%、1.18%~12.76%. 这些结果证明了BKA-CNN-BiLSTM模型的优越性能. 这不仅为地表沉降建模提供了新的技术思路,也为深度学习在相关领域的应用提供了有价值的参考和解决方案.

     

    Abstract: Convolutional neural networks (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks are currently among the most popular deep learning architectures for surface subsidence prediction. However, the selection of hyper parameters for such models remains both time-consuming and complex, and improper choices can significantly degrade model performance. To address this issue, this study integrates the black-winged kite optimization algorithm (BKA) for hyper parameter optimization, constructing a hybrid BKA-CNN-BiLSTM model. Taking Xining city as a case study, experimental analyses were conducted and the results were compared with those of four other models. The findings reveal that the proposed BKA-CNN-BiLSTM model achieves superior performance in both training and prediction. Compared to the BiLSTM model, the coefficient of determination (R2) improvement ranges from 17.43% to 25.77%, and compared to the CNN-BiLSTM model, the improvement ranges from 12.04% to 13.75%. The proposed model also obtains the lowest MAE, MSE, and RMSE among all models. When compared with CNN-BiLSTM models optimized by genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), the BKA-CNN-BiLSTM model continues to demonstrate higher reliability and prediction accuracy, with R² improvements of 6.20%~17.76% and 1.18%~12.76%, respectively. These results validate the superior performance of the proposed model and offer a novel technical pathway for surface subsidence modeling, while providing practical insights for the application of deep learning in related domains.

     

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